It's an election year, so the market should see a nice second half of the year for the markets. However, last week's set up was actually something that could create more weakness near-term.
After a 15% decline from the March highs, the SMH semiconductor ETF is bouncing from an oversold condition. Whether the bounce in this all-important leadership group has legs or not as we move into the merry month of May should be very important for the rest of the stock market.
Meta’s disappointing guidance raises the odds that this earnings season will not create the kind of increase in earnings expectations for 2024 & 2025 that is needed to help the stock market rally further from its current expensive level. (It also raises the odds that a full-blown correction.)
MSFT stands at a key level on a technical basis. Therefore, how it reacts to its earnings/guidance is going to be very important for the stock on an intermediate-term basis. (Longer-term, its prospects are still excellent.)